---
description: Dual Currency
---

# Backtesting Appendix (DC)

The legend below indicates the historical incidence of conversion or no conversion during a 27 day period.

* <mark style="color:green;">**Dark green:**</mark> No conversion occurs.
* <mark style="color:green;">**Light green:**</mark> Conversion occurs but no impact to net P\&L.
* **Light gray:** Conversion occurs and the impact to net P\&L (due to diluted upside) is less than median.
* **Dark gray:** Conversion occurs and the impact to net P\&L (due to diluted upside) is more than median.

The median P\&L impact due to diluted upside is calculated and noted beside the red boxes above the probability bar chart. The median P\&L gain can be found next to the green boxes above the bar chart.

### stETH Dragon

stETH Dragon has a **59% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FEl8RJB6IIqqfEeBvQVaY%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=32f943e9-5ce5-45f0-82a5-c5f4311ac76b" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### stETH Elephant

stETH Elephant has a **66% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FRDll5HB1TG4Ro6bUYItd%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=e3dfb1f9-6d4b-49b5-8b9e-13411863fdd5" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### stETH Whale

stETH Whale has a **88% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2F6O1ap5nqF3eoEwQACvGc%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-03-28%20at%201.23.03%20pm.png?alt=media&#x26;token=87764b19-b95c-4cbe-84f4-a15c34a58452" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### ETH Dragon

ETH Dragon has a **61% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2F84Gm5ZhhqEv3GngpkUUg%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=627ac6e4-6e5e-4cd7-ae2c-761da99f8dfd" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### ETH Elephant

ETH Elephant has a **69% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FCtVXyYjAcP7Oj3CavpQ0%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.19.01%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=f7f507d4-382f-4bc8-ae35-ba38ceb5929e" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### ETH Whale

ETH Whale has a **92% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2Fks84C970NjLLXeOZIjlt%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-03-28%20at%201.21.52%20pm.png?alt=media&#x26;token=f7de8b70-86a8-40ff-880a-14df5caaaabf" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### USDC Dragon

USDC Dragon has a **82% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FJ54Hox62cdXbWkp8ZcsJ%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.18.24%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=6d1723b3-e272-4188-98ff-ce848c7bf16b" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### USDC Elephant

USDC Elephant has a **95% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FQ2EqS82P9L0P8qwMhhQA%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.17.59%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=35b52dc6-7538-4ab5-8d01-52107f498044" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### USDT Dragon

USDT Dragon has a **82% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FSYgxG7ZskolLORiBTShv%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.15.44%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=4bfed2d4-a6f5-4d03-940e-029ea761c296" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### USDT Elephant

USDT Elephant has a **95% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FVDmHCbC0ktxbeqz88zAT%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.14.57%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=363d5db6-7e50-4a1c-bb93-92cb71d82f6f" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### WBTC Dragon

WBTC Dragon has a **52% probability of no conversion** (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2Fhtr45lljWtXMSYhVfPP8%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-01-30%20at%201.12.54%20pm.png?alt=media&#x26;token=6af201ba-daf2-4de0-a057-60a9292cb60b" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### WBTC Elephant

WBTC Elephant has a **64% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FgAYTaKzWMh9R8ngbzzdx%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-01-30%20at%201.15.43%20pm.png?alt=media&#x26;token=d8f230f7-af21-4981-860c-91c20a096da2" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### DAI Dragon

DAI Elephant has a **82% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FGrVmOgMZI803H6d2jbAa%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.13.00%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=18599209-f9af-473a-87cb-15a21335c80c" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### DAI Elephant

DAI Elephant has a **95% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Jan 2023 - Jan 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FEPMe9F8fTPi1AI4GQL5K%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-02-22%20at%2011.13.50%20am.png?alt=media&#x26;token=08c91660-87c4-4d50-ac71-72374bfb214f" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### USDe Elephant

USDe Elephant has a **63% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Feb 2024 - April 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2F1N97Lyw8rhZirPcqGgkX%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-04-29%20at%201.25.57%20pm.png?alt=media&#x26;token=994d8b85-8607-4795-be7a-0da04371274f" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### USDe Whale

USDe Elephant has a **100% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Feb 2024 - April 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2F0tGbUKAsBIqVYhemaxfb%2FScreen%20Shot%202024-04-29%20at%201.26.51%20pm.png?alt=media&#x26;token=aa95f66e-ddb2-4303-8c0c-39f7a725a864" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Pendle Ether.fi-YT Tiger (26SEP24 Maturity)

Pendle Ether.fi-YT Tiger with 26SEP24 maturity has a 10&#x30;**% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Feb 2024 - April 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FofMKWXwgtCR6b0C1v3th%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=ada6fe05-603e-4baa-9e42-84582f50ffb0" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Pendle Ether.fi-YT Tiger (26DEC24 Maturity)

Pendle Ether.fi-YT Tiger with 26DEC24 maturity has a 8&#x38;**% probability of no conversion**  (backtesting data Feb 2024 - April 2024).

<figure><img src="https://4037246301-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F0j8xkWfYApGq2lpsqgTv%2Fuploads%2FeMSN6fXvfUrSwG5ixuEL%2Fimage%207626dec.png?alt=media&#x26;token=87d263e5-b87e-4095-8c04-2d88f0af05ba" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
